Come on down and meet your maker. Come on down and take a stand. "The Stand" - The Alarm
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Baseline Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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26–16 on winners spread MAE 10.6 42 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Northwestern @ Butler -0.2 131.3 55% 69–71 ✗
Kennesaw State @ UC Irvine +11.5 148.4 84% 59–76 ✓
Davidson @ Providence +4.0 138.9 53% 69–58 ✗
Northern Iowa @ North Texas +3.0 123.6 71% 48–68 ✓
Saint Mary's @ USC -4.6 145.5 38% 71–36 ✓
Mississippi State @ UNLV -7.6 147.7 26% 80–58 ✓
Kent State @ Towson -2.0 126.7 36% 65–54 ✓
Arizona State @ New Mexico +3.3 153.5 64% 85–82 ✗
Providence @ Indiana +1.0 136.0 58% 73–89 ✓
Alcorn State @ South Alabama +18.9 126.2 91% 65–74 ✓
Colgate @ App State -1.0 128.5 47% 50–72 ✗
Dartmouth @ Boston College +18.7 142.2 88% 88–83 ✗
Minnesota @ Wake Forest -0.1 128.3 45% 51–57 ✗
Bowling Green @ Weber State +1.9 145.9 53% 70–73 ✓
Valparaiso @ DePaul +19.6 148.2 87% 70–89 ✓
TCU @ Colorado State -2.7 139.6 38% 72–76 ✗
Merrimack @ Troy +12.7 134.5 81% 72–68 ✗
Maine @ Elon +7.0 138.9 71% 69–56 ✗
Niagara @ Binghamton -1.6 141.8 32% 65–62 ✓
VMI @ George Washington +12.4 147.0 85% 64–77 ✓
Tarleton State @ Iona +5.5 132.2 77% 51–62 ✓
Pittsburgh @ Ohio State +6.5 148.1 52% 91–90 ✗
Arizona @ West Virginia +0.8 152.7 58% 76–83 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ Vanderbilt +14.2 153.9 86% 56–87 ✓
Morehead State @ Cleveland State +5.8 130.5 62% 71–69 ✗
Northern Illinois @ Eastern Illinois +4.0 142.7 64% 59–72 ✓
Wichita State @ Florida +8.6 152.6 70% 51–88 ✓
NC State @ BYU +2.1 150.5 62% 61–72 ✓
Pepperdine @ New Mexico State +6.4 136.8 76% 82–70 ✗
West Georgia @ Samford +13.6 151.8 85% 65–86 ✓
Sam Houston @ UNC Wilmington +0.9 152.1 61% 60–69 ✓
George Mason @ James Madison +2.3 146.6 58% 66–61 ✗
Holy Cross @ Virginia +6.6 127.3 72% 41–67 ✓
Santa Clara @ Washington -1.9 141.3 49% 69–76 ✗
Long Island University @ Lafayette +2.1 142.0 62% 56–75 ✓
Navy @ Pennsylvania +3.6 148.7 58% 86–78 ✗
Indiana State @ Arkansas State +8.7 149.1 84% 81–86 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Belmont +3.9 149.0 67% 74–83 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ East Carolina +8.5 150.0 79% 69–93 ✓
Oklahoma @ Louisville +3.3 146.2 61% 69–64 ✗
Ole Miss @ Purdue +1.2 141.8 61% 78–80 ✓
Utah State @ North Texas -3.4 125.8 34% 61–57 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.