Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -17.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | USA -2500 ALCN +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +9 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | USA -24.2 (-15.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.8 (+13.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -18.9 (-9.9) | 126.2 (+12.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USA -18.8 (-9.8) | 130.0 (+9.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -17.7 (-8.7) | 130.6 (+8.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -16.6 (-7.6) | 131.4 (+7.6) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 7, 2025 | USA 76 – 70 ALCN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USA | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 11-7 |
| Home | 13-4 | 6-3 |
| Away | 8-6 | 5-17 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 65.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.5 | 72.4 |
| Massey | 0.7 (#152) | -17.7 (#358) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.04 (#261) | -2.12 (#323) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.85 (#226) | -3.43 (#326) |
| RPI | 0.449 (#264) | 0.440 (#277) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USA | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 33.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.3% | 25.0% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 0.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 36.9% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 22.4% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 18.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 57.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 75.6% | 58.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.6% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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