Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -18.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | USA -5000 ALCN +1500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +6 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | USA -31.3 (-25.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.1 (-16.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | USA -13.4 (-7.4) | 152.7 (-6.7) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USA -13.7 (-7.7) | 156.5 (-10.5) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 29, 2024 | USA 74 – 65 ALCN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USA | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 7-11 |
| Home | 10-4 | 5-4 |
| Away | 8-7 | 2-18 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 66.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 80.2 |
| Massey | 7.3 (#24) | -4.0 (#211) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.18 (#9) | -0.26 (#149) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.80 (#10) | -0.39 (#218) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USA | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 55.2% | 51.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 50.0% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.60 | 0.52 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 61.2% | 58.8% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 27.7% |
| ORB% | 35.5% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 8.6% | 31.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 60.9% | 65.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 10.5% |
| DRB% | 80.6% | 63.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.7% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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