Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | LOU -170 OU +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OU +5 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | LOU -5.8 (-10.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.4 (-15.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -3.3 (-8.3) | 146.2 (-13.2) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -3.6 (-8.6) | 145.2 (-12.2) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -4.1 (-9.1) | 144.1 (-11.1) | 71% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LOU -2.1 (-7.1) | 144.9 (-11.9) | 60% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | OU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 18-2 | 6-12 |
| Home | 14-3 | 12-5 |
| Away | 9-2 | 2-7 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.5 | 78.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 74.6 |
| Massey | 15.8 (#19) | 10.0 (#51) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.59 (#32) | 2.61 (#31) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.76 (#19) | 3.69 (#36) |
| RPI | 0.633 (#30) | 0.575 (#64) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | OU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 47.8% |
| 3PT% | 29.8% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 55.9% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 33.2% | 33.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.9% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 26.3% | 23.0% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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