Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Under |
| Money | UVA -1700 HC +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +26 | 108 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -7.4 (+18.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.8 (-19.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -6.6 (+19.4) | 127.3 (-19.3) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -6.5 (+19.5) | 131.7 (-23.7) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -6.0 (+20.0) | 131.9 (-23.9) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -11.6 (+14.4) | 126.3 (-18.3) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | HC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 5-13 |
| Home | 10-7 | 7-6 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.8 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 73.7 |
| Massey | -1.3 (#193) | -2.9 (#219) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.78 (#118) | 0.53 (#137) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.34 (#108) | -0.02 (#176) |
| RPI | 0.532 (#120) | 0.543 (#109) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | HC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 39.4% | 37.8% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 31.3 |
| OREB / G | 6.2 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 21.5% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 56.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.1% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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