Betting Lines
| Spread | SHSU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | UNCW +110 SHSU -130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +9 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | SHSU -0.1 (+9.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.0 (-32.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -0.9 (+8.1) | 152.1 (-23.1) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -1.5 (+7.5) | 152.1 (-23.1) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -1.0 (+8.0) | 151.6 (-22.6) | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -0.1 (+8.9) | 150.6 (-21.6) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCW | SHSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 6-12 |
| Home | 15-3 | 9-4 |
| Away | 9-4 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 77.1 |
| Massey | -4.8 (#258) | 1.0 (#147) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.90 (#250) | -0.26 (#204) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.11 (#281) | -0.86 (#227) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#228) | 0.482 (#203) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCW | SHSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.9% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 26.4% | 41.2% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.0% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 33.0% |
| FT Rate | 44.3% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.1% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 59.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.2% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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