Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | UNT +150 USU -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +4 | 118 | Lost |
| Massey | USU -9.5 (+5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.4 (-28.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -3.4 (-0.6) | 125.8 (-7.8) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -2.5 (-1.5) | 137.8 (-19.8) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -3.8 (-0.2) | 137.6 (-19.6) | 33% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -5.4 (+1.4) | 130.2 (-12.2) | 28% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNT | USU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 15-5 |
| Home | 17-1 | 15-2 |
| Away | 8-5 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.5 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.6 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 4.7 (#99) | 14.2 (#24) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.87 (#49) | 3.69 (#10) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.63 (#62) | 5.69 (#9) |
| RPI | 0.644 (#24) | 0.712 (#10) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNT | USU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.2% | 48.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 42.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 16.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.3% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 36.1% | 43.5% |
| FT Rate | 28.8% | 29.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.7% | 23.0% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.2% | 17.3% |
Game Analysis
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