Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -19.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | SAM -6000 WGA +1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +21 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | SAM -18.6 (+2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.9 (-10.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -13.6 (+7.4) | 151.8 (-0.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -13.0 (+8.0) | 149.5 (+1.5) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -12.4 (+8.6) | 148.6 (+2.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -15.5 (+5.5) | 149.4 (+1.6) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAM | WGA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 6-25 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 4-14 |
| Home | 13-3 | 4-8 |
| Away | 9-7 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L3 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.5 | 67.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.8 | 78.8 |
| Massey | 3.2 (#118) | -9.6 (#326) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.88 (#109) | -2.84 (#344) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.57 (#142) | -4.27 (#345) |
| RPI | 0.540 (#111) | 0.372 (#335) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAM | WGA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 40.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 28.2% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.7% | 44.1% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 34.3% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 15.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 56.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 61.6% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.7% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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