You pay for this but they give you that. "Hey Hey, My My" - Neil Young
App State Mountaineers
72 50
FINAL Neutral Live Oak Bank Holiday Classic
Colgate Raiders
Trask Coliseum (Neutral) · November 29, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread APP -1.5 Home covered
O/U 134.5 Under
Money APP -110 / COLG -110
Model Predictions
Spread Total APP win
Actual APP +22 122 Won
Massey COLG -2.4 (+24.4)
Massey Totals 121.3 (+0.7)
Bradley-Terry 70%
Weighted B-T 63%
Baseline Plus ML COLG -1.0 (+23.0) 128.5 (-6.5) 47%
Baseline ML COLG -1.1 (+23.1) 129.2 (-7.2) 47%
Baseline Tuned ML COLG -0.4 (+22.4) 125.9 (-3.9) 51%
Efficiency Plus ML APP -0.6 (+21.4) 131.0 (-9.0) 62%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings APP COLG
Overall 17-14 14-19
Conference 10-8 10-8
Home 10-4 10-4
Away 5-8 4-13
Neutral 2-2 0-2
Last 5 3-2 1-4
Streak L4 L1
Avg Pts For 65.8 71.4
Avg Pts Against 64.6 72.7
Massey -5.3 (#264) -2.9 (#220)
Bradley-Terry 0.24 (#155) -0.61 (#230)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.37 (#198) -0.90 (#231)
RPI 0.539 (#112) 0.473 (#218)
Shooting & Four Factors APP COLG
FG% 41.9% 41.1%
3PT% 35.0% 31.2%
REB / G 37.4 33.0
OREB / G 10.8 7.2
AST / TO 0.79 1.26
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.0% 48.3%
TOV% 21.7% 15.1%
ORB% 30.0% 19.3%
FT Rate 24.2% 9.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.7% 50.0%
Opp TOV% 14.7% 15.4%
DRB% 67.9% 72.1%
Opp FT Rate 15.2% 18.7%

Game Analysis

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