In North Carolina way back in the hills, there lived my pappy and he had him a still. "White Lightning" - The Big Bopper
Charles E. Smith Center · November 29, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread GW -20.5 Away covered
O/U 152.5 Under
Money GW -10000 / VMI +2500
Model Predictions
Spread Total GW win
Actual GW +13 141 Won
Massey GW -12.9 (+0.1)
Massey Totals 146.4 (-5.4)
Bradley-Terry 94%
Weighted B-T 98%
Baseline Plus ML GW -12.4 (+0.6) 147.0 (-6.0) 85%
Baseline ML GW -12.0 (+1.0) 145.6 (-4.6) 84%
Baseline Tuned ML GW -11.5 (+1.5) 145.3 (-4.3) 85%
Efficiency Plus ML GW -12.5 (+0.5) 146.8 (-5.8) 88%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings GW VMI
Overall 21-13 15-19
Conference 9-9 7-11
Home 13-4 7-7
Away 5-6 5-10
Neutral 3-3 3-2
Last 5 4-1 1-4
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 72.3 69.1
Avg Pts Against 68.6 75.5
Massey 1.1 (#146) -6.0 (#274)
Bradley-Terry 0.75 (#120) -0.92 (#252)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.25 (#114) -1.26 (#250)
RPI 0.523 (#134) 0.451 (#260)
Shooting & Four Factors GW VMI
FG% 44.1% 39.6%
3PT% 30.1% 29.9%
REB / G 36.3 33.0
OREB / G 10.4 9.3
AST / TO 1.04 1.01
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.8% 46.0%
TOV% 16.6% 17.7%
ORB% 31.2% 25.8%
FT Rate 40.3% 27.6%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.4% 53.8%
Opp TOV% 19.5% 16.4%
DRB% 72.1% 68.6%
Opp FT Rate 23.2% 19.2%

Game Analysis

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