Oh workers can you stand it, oh tell me how you can? Will you be a lousy scab or will you be a man? "Which Side Are You On?" - Pete Seeger
UNLV Rebels
58 80
FINAL Neutral Arizona Tip-Off
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Mullett Arena (Neutral) · November 29, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread MSST -9.5 Away covered
O/U 146.5 Under
Money UNLV +340 / MSST -450
Model Predictions
Spread Total UNLV win
Actual MSST +22 138 Lost
Massey MSST -12.8 (-9.2)
Massey Totals 154.4 (-16.4)
Bradley-Terry 10%
Weighted B-T 3%
Baseline Plus ML MSST -7.6 (-14.4) 147.7 (-9.7) 26%
Baseline ML MSST -4.4 (-17.6) 148.1 (-10.1) 30%
Baseline Tuned ML MSST -5.0 (-17.0) 145.5 (-7.5) 28%
Efficiency Plus ML MSST -7.2 (-14.8) 144.0 (-6.0) 26%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UNLV MSST
Overall 18-15 21-13
Conference 11-9 8-10
Home 12-5 10-5
Away 5-7 6-5
Neutral 1-3 5-3
Last 5 4-1 5-0
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 69.2 79.5
Avg Pts Against 68.1 74.2
Massey 4.0 (#109) 16.7 (#14)
Bradley-Terry 1.20 (#87) 3.43 (#11)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.95 (#87) 5.32 (#12)
RPI 0.548 (#101) 0.648 (#21)
Shooting & Four Factors UNLV MSST
FG% 45.7% 47.0%
3PT% 38.1% 33.6%
REB / G 34.4 39.0
OREB / G 9.8 13.2
AST / TO 1.42 2.21
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.9% 53.9%
TOV% 14.6% 11.8%
ORB% 29.2% 33.7%
FT Rate 38.8% 23.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.1% 46.8%
Opp TOV% 20.3% 22.6%
DRB% 68.3% 70.9%
Opp FT Rate 25.7% 26.3%

Game Analysis

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