They put a hot wire to my head / Because of the things I did and said "Rise" - Public Image Ltd.
New Mexico Lobos
82 85
FINAL Neutral Classic
Arizona State Sun Devils
Acrisure Arena (Neutral) · November 29, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread UNM -4.5 Away covered
O/U 158.5 Over
Money UNM -195 / ASU +165
Model Predictions
Spread Total UNM win
Actual ASU +3 167 Lost
Massey UNM -2.6 (-5.6)
Massey Totals 157.1 (+9.9)
Bradley-Terry 39%
Weighted B-T 41%
Baseline Plus ML UNM -3.3 (-6.3) 153.5 (+13.5) 64%
Baseline ML UNM -3.4 (-6.4) 153.4 (+13.6) 62%
Baseline Tuned ML UNM -3.9 (-6.9) 152.6 (+14.4) 65%
Efficiency Plus ML UNM -3.1 (-6.1) 155.1 (+11.9) 70%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UNM ASU
Overall 27-8 13-20
Conference 17-3 4-16
Home 15-1 5-9
Away 7-4 3-8
Neutral 5-3 5-3
Last 5 4-1 4-1
Streak L1 L6
Avg Pts For 79.3 74.1
Avg Pts Against 70.6 76.8
Massey 12.0 (#37) 9.4 (#55)
Bradley-Terry 1.94 (#47) 2.38 (#37)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.07 (#50) 3.42 (#44)
RPI 0.566 (#76) 0.636 (#27)
Shooting & Four Factors UNM ASU
FG% 46.8% 46.9%
3PT% 35.0% 38.1%
REB / G 40.0 38.0
OREB / G 12.8 9.0
AST / TO 1.44 1.09
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.9% 55.9%
TOV% 17.0% 18.6%
ORB% 31.7% 27.7%
FT Rate 25.3% 29.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 48.7% 48.6%
Opp TOV% 25.0% 14.6%
DRB% 67.4% 74.0%
Opp FT Rate 21.3% 17.7%

Game Analysis

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