Betting Lines
| Spread | LAF -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | LAF -155 LIU +135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LAF +19 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | LAF -4.3 (+14.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.8 (-10.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LAF -2.1 (+16.9) | 142.0 (-11.0) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LAF -2.6 (+16.4) | 141.6 (-10.6) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LAF -2.8 (+16.2) | 141.2 (-10.2) | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LAF -3.6 (+15.4) | 139.8 (-8.8) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAF | LIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 12-4 |
| Home | 10-6 | 10-5 |
| Away | 3-14 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 65.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 66.5 |
| Massey | -6.5 (#287) | -5.0 (#261) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.07 (#264) | 0.20 (#162) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.30 (#291) | 0.07 (#170) |
| RPI | 0.460 (#241) | 0.561 (#83) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAF | LIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.3% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 14.4% |
| DRB% | 61.4% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.8% | 40.0% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.