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Baseline Plus — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
30–9 on winners
spread MAE 9.6
39 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
+24.2 | 147.0 | 91% | 59–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.4 | 140.7 | 68% | 53–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+8.5 | 142.6 | 76% | 72–59 | ✗ |
|
|
+8.3 | 151.5 | 81% | 76–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.9 | 160.5 | 73% | 72–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.8 | 136.5 | 77% | 48–72 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.5 | 131.6 | 46% | 64–58 | ✗ |
|
|
+3.4 | 161.0 | 66% | 76–84 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.3 | 146.9 | 82% | 67–91 | ✓ |
|
|
+18.1 | 139.3 | 89% | 59–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+5.5 | 157.7 | 76% | 90–93 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.5 | 132.6 | 42% | 74–71 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.0 | 157.1 | 44% | 104–71 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.9 | 144.1 | 49% | 53–78 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.5 | 136.7 | 56% | 70–73 | ✓ |
|
|
+24.6 | 140.3 | 90% | 59–94 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.3 | 152.2 | 38% | 75–83 | ✗ |
|
|
+6.2 | 156.6 | 63% | 94–91 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.2 | 157.5 | 55% | 77–60 | ✓ |
|
|
-5.9 | 162.7 | 22% | 95–90 | ✓ |
|
|
+17.6 | 147.5 | 90% | 71–83 | ✓ |
|
|
-8.0 | 127.8 | 18% | 82–66 | ✓ |
|
|
+15.2 | 137.3 | 85% | 55–81 | ✓ |
|
|
-0.1 | 147.6 | 57% | 67–85 | ✗ |
|
|
-0.9 | 146.6 | 44% | 86–81 | ✓ |
|
|
-9.9 | 138.8 | 19% | 65–54 | ✓ |
|
|
+1.6 | 145.5 | 62% | 70–79 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.2 | 133.9 | 77% | 66–68 | ✓ |
|
|
+9.4 | 154.6 | 85% | 78–83 | ✓ |
|
|
-9.3 | 149.4 | 19% | 89–73 | ✓ |
|
|
-8.7 | 142.4 | 21% | 75–58 | ✓ |
|
|
+3.6 | 141.9 | 70% | 61–71 | ✓ |
|
|
-2.9 | 149.0 | 37% | 63–83 | ✗ |
|
|
-3.7 | 148.2 | 37% | 90–77 | ✓ |
|
|
+6.1 | 142.6 | 71% | 69–52 | ✗ |
|
|
+1.7 | 151.8 | 64% | 77–82 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.5 | 147.2 | 62% | 85–96 | ✓ |
|
|
-1.6 | 146.4 | 49% | 72–67 | ✓ |
|
|
+0.5 | 144.4 | 56% | 73–67 | ✗ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.