Trouble's gonna come to you "Your Time is Gonna Come" - Led Zeppelin
Louisville Cardinals
79 70 OT
FINAL Neutral Battle 4 Atlantis
West Virginia Mountaineers
Imperial Arena (Neutral) · November 28, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread LOU -3.5 Home covered
O/U 150.5 Under
Money LOU -180 / WVU +150
Model Predictions
Spread Total LOU win
Actual LOU +9 149 Won
Massey LOU -1.9 (+7.1)
Massey Totals 145.0 (+4.0)
Bradley-Terry 18%
Weighted B-T 7%
Baseline Plus ML LOU -1.6 (+7.4) 145.5 (+3.5) 62%
Baseline ML LOU -2.1 (+6.9) 143.6 (+5.4) 65%
Baseline Tuned ML LOU -2.1 (+6.9) 142.5 (+6.5) 59%
Efficiency Plus ML LOU -2.4 (+6.6) 150.1 (-1.1) 72%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings LOU WVU
Overall 27-8 19-13
Conference 18-2 10-10
Home 14-3 13-4
Away 9-2 4-7
Neutral 4-3 2-2
Last 5 4-1 4-1
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 78.5 68.2
Avg Pts Against 69.5 64.8
Massey 14.6 (#22) 12.8 (#33)
Bradley-Terry 1.56 (#62) 3.09 (#14)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.71 (#56) 5.38 (#11)
RPI 0.607 (#44) 0.676 (#14)
Shooting & Four Factors LOU WVU
FG% 46.5% 44.6%
3PT% 30.7% 35.5%
REB / G 38.2 37.2
OREB / G 11.6 9.4
AST / TO 1.28 1.05
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 54.5% 53.7%
TOV% 17.5% 17.2%
ORB% 32.6% 27.0%
FT Rate 22.6% 25.5%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 43.5% 42.6%
Opp TOV% 27.1% 20.3%
DRB% 65.8% 68.1%
Opp FT Rate 20.3% 22.9%

Game Analysis

Loading game analysis…

Failed to load game analysis.