Betting Lines
| Spread | CAL -22.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | CAL -20000 MERC +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CAL +26 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | CAL -20.2 (+5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.5 (-4.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CAL -15.2 (+10.8) | 137.3 (-1.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CAL -15.0 (+11.0) | 139.4 (-3.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CAL -14.2 (+11.8) | 140.0 (-4.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CAL -15.0 (+11.0) | 137.4 (-1.4) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAL | MERC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 9-7 |
| Home | 11-6 | 11-2 |
| Away | 2-11 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 65.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.8 | 71.8 |
| Massey | 4.2 (#107) | -10.1 (#331) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.65 (#28) | -1.25 (#275) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.10 (#27) | -2.37 (#289) |
| RPI | 0.633 (#27) | 0.447 (#266) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAL | MERC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 39.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 29.6% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 25.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 44.5% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 34.3% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 35.9% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 57.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 22.7% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 60.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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