We are not monsters, we're moral people / And yet we have the strength to do this. "Nemesis" - Shriekback
Loyola Marymount Lions
73 70
FINAL Neutral Cancun Challenge
Wyoming Cowboys
Hard Rock Hotel Riviera Maya (Neutral) · November 28, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread LMU -3.5 Away covered
O/U 140.5 Over
Money LMU -170 / WYO +140
Model Predictions
Spread Total LMU win
Actual LMU +3 143 Won
Massey LMU -1.5 (+1.5)
Massey Totals 129.4 (+13.6)
Bradley-Terry 17%
Weighted B-T 22%
Baseline Plus ML LMU -1.5 (+1.5) 136.7 (+6.3) 56%
Baseline ML LMU -0.2 (+2.8) 135.1 (+7.9) 51%
Baseline Tuned ML LMU -1.1 (+1.9) 132.1 (+10.9) 56%
Efficiency Plus ML LMU -0.3 (+2.7) 137.5 (+5.5) 58%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings LMU WYO
Overall 17-15 12-20
Conference 8-10 5-15
Home 11-6 8-7
Away 3-8 3-10
Neutral 3-1 1-3
Last 5 1-3 4-1
Streak L1 L5
Avg Pts For 70.3 65.8
Avg Pts Against 72.1 70.7
Massey -2.9 (#221) -4.4 (#251)
Bradley-Terry -1.02 (#257) 0.57 (#138)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.11 (#240) 0.17 (#169)
RPI 0.451 (#259) 0.533 (#125)
Shooting & Four Factors LMU WYO
FG% 37.6% 42.9%
3PT% 30.7% 28.9%
REB / G 38.2 42.6
OREB / G 10.8 14.0
AST / TO 1.22 0.66
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 44.3% 47.6%
TOV% 12.7% 22.8%
ORB% 25.3% 38.3%
FT Rate 14.8% 29.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.6% 45.7%
Opp TOV% 18.3% 13.4%
DRB% 74.3% 73.3%
Opp FT Rate 18.3% 26.6%

Game Analysis

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