The juice of the carrot, the smile of the parrot / A little drop of claret - anything that rocks "Reasons to be Cheerful, Part 3" - Ian Dury & the Blockheads
UNC Greensboro Spartans
58 64
FINAL Neutral Ball Dawgs Classic
UTEP Miners
Lee's Family Forum (Neutral) · November 28, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread UNCG -1.5 Away covered
O/U 137.5 Under
Money UNCG -125 / UTEP +105
Model Predictions
Spread Total UNCG win
Actual UTEP +6 122 Lost
Massey UNCG -1.1 (-7.1)
Massey Totals 134.5 (-12.5)
Bradley-Terry 17%
Weighted B-T 24%
Baseline Plus ML UNCG -0.5 (-6.5) 131.6 (-9.6) 46%
Baseline ML UTEP -0.8 (-5.2) 130.7 (-8.7) 53%
Baseline Tuned ML UTEP -0.7 (-5.3) 131.6 (-9.6) 52%
Efficiency Plus ML UNCG -0.8 (-6.8) 132.3 (-10.3) 59%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UNCG UTEP
Overall 20-12 18-15
Conference 13-5 7-11
Home 11-3 11-5
Away 8-6 4-8
Neutral 1-3 3-2
Last 5 2-3 2-2
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 70.4 71.1
Avg Pts Against 67.3 72.1
Massey 0.8 (#148) -0.3 (#167)
Bradley-Terry -1.81 (#306) -0.24 (#203)
W. Bradley-Terry -2.66 (#301) -1.49 (#260)
RPI 0.424 (#294) 0.486 (#199)
Shooting & Four Factors UNCG UTEP
FG% 38.0% 40.7%
3PT% 32.1% 36.8%
REB / G 37.6 26.2
OREB / G 12.4 8.2
AST / TO 1.30 0.91
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 45.1% 47.1%
TOV% 16.2% 18.7%
ORB% 31.5% 23.4%
FT Rate 23.1% 29.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 44.8% 56.7%
Opp TOV% 18.4% 30.9%
DRB% 67.7% 67.3%
Opp FT Rate 25.3% 43.8%

Game Analysis

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