Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | SAM -200 UVU +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +8 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | SAM -3.7 (+4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 178.6 (-18.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -4.7 (+3.3) | 153.9 (+6.1) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -3.7 (+4.3) | 158.1 (+1.9) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -3.4 (+4.6) | 162.0 (-2.0) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -3.4 (+4.6) | 161.0 (-1.0) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 26, 2025 | UVU 89 – 45 SAM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAM | UVU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 25-9 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 15-1 |
| Home | 13-3 | 12-0 |
| Away | 9-7 | 10-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.5 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.8 | 68.9 |
| Massey | 2.6 (#129) | 4.8 (#99) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.65 (#131) | 1.46 (#72) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.32 (#161) | 0.73 (#136) |
| RPI | 0.506 (#168) | 0.533 (#124) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAM | UVU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 37.1% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 40.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.1% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 35.3% | 35.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 36.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 61.8% | 78.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.8% | 34.7% |
Game Analysis
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