Betting Lines
| Spread | URI -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | URI -320 UTA +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | URI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | URI +5 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | URI -11.8 (-6.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.1 (-3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | URI -9.4 (-4.4) | 154.6 (+6.4) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | URI -8.7 (-3.7) | 155.6 (+5.4) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | URI -9.6 (-4.6) | 155.5 (+5.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | URI -8.0 (-3.0) | 154.6 (+6.4) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | URI | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-13 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 6-10 |
| Home | 14-3 | 9-4 |
| Away | 1-9 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 73.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 75.7 |
| Massey | 10.1 (#47) | -1.7 (#195) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.08 (#46) | -0.13 (#195) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.96 (#54) | 0.47 (#155) |
| RPI | 0.629 (#28) | 0.507 (#164) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | URI | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.3% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 39.0% | 41.0% |
| REB / G | 40.6 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.66 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.1% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 37.9% | 28.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.9% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 13.0% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 32.3% |
Game Analysis
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