Betting Lines
| Spread | MARQ -34.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MARQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MARQ +35 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | MARQ -29.2 (+5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.9 (+15.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MARQ -24.6 (+10.4) | 140.3 (+12.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MARQ -26.0 (+9.0) | 138.8 (+14.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MARQ -22.8 (+12.2) | 139.5 (+13.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MARQ -26.0 (+9.0) | 143.2 (+9.8) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MARQ | STO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 7-9 |
| Home | 14-3 | 11-3 |
| Away | 7-6 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 70.9 |
| Massey | 16.9 (#14) | -6.4 (#282) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.20 (#3) | -0.25 (#205) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.29 (#6) | 0.13 (#171) |
| RPI | 0.744 (#4) | 0.460 (#241) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MARQ | STO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 38.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.64 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 13.0% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 22.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.9% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 65.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 27.7% |
Game Analysis
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