Betting Lines
| Spread | MRSH -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | MRSH -650 SCST +425 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRSH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRSH +29 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | MRSH -5.5 (+23.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.3 (-2.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRSH -5.4 (+23.6) | 140.7 (-5.7) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MRSH -5.4 (+23.6) | 140.1 (-5.1) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRSH -5.5 (+23.5) | 139.3 (-4.3) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRSH -4.9 (+24.1) | 139.1 (-4.1) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRSH | SCST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 11-3 |
| Home | 14-3 | 10-2 |
| Away | 5-9 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 76.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 71.5 |
| Massey | -3.7 (#237) | -3.3 (#230) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.66 (#230) | -0.63 (#226) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.21 (#249) | -1.36 (#256) |
| RPI | 0.489 (#191) | 0.421 (#295) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRSH | SCST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 25.7% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.0% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 29.4% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 21.6% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 63.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 46.1% | 28.3% |
Game Analysis
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