Betting Lines
| Spread | LR -18.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | LR -5000 UMES +1500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LR +19 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | LR -22.7 (-3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.1 (-3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LR -18.1 (+0.9) | 139.3 (-2.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LR -18.9 (+0.1) | 138.2 (-1.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LR -16.5 (+2.5) | 138.5 (-1.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LR -17.1 (+1.9) | 137.8 (-0.8) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LR | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 6-25 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 2-12 |
| Home | 9-5 | 5-7 |
| Away | 9-7 | 1-17 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 63.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 79.5 |
| Massey | -1.6 (#193) | -18.4 (#360) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.49 (#144) | -3.35 (#356) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.62 (#146) | -4.86 (#354) |
| RPI | 0.541 (#112) | 0.374 (#334) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LR | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.9% | 37.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 0.57 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.6% | 42.4% |
| TOV% | 22.3% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 22.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 56.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 11.3% |
| DRB% | 59.5% | 61.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.7% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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