I just keep on rolling along with the grace of the Lord above. "Heartbreaker" - Led Zeppelin
Addition Financial Arena · November 28, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread UCF -12.5 Away covered
O/U 154.5 Over
Money UCF -900 / MILW +600
Model Predictions
Spread Total UCF win
Actual UCF +8 160 Won
Massey UCF -10.7 (-2.7)
Massey Totals 156.8 (+3.2)
Bradley-Terry 93%
Weighted B-T 98%
Baseline Plus ML UCF -8.3 (-0.3) 151.5 (+8.5) 81%
Baseline ML UCF -8.6 (-0.6) 152.6 (+7.4) 81%
Baseline Tuned ML UCF -8.0 (+0.0) 149.7 (+10.3) 78%
Efficiency Plus ML UCF -10.0 (-2.0) 151.2 (+8.8) 82%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UCF MILW
Overall 20-17 21-11
Conference 7-13 14-6
Home 13-5 13-3
Away 2-8 7-8
Neutral 5-4 1-0
Last 5 3-2 4-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 79.8 76.7
Avg Pts Against 80.4 72.5
Massey 3.1 (#119) -1.7 (#197)
Bradley-Terry 1.76 (#56) 0.42 (#152)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.01 (#53) 0.52 (#152)
RPI 0.643 (#23) 0.499 (#177)
Shooting & Four Factors UCF MILW
FG% 41.4% 45.2%
3PT% 29.7% 31.0%
REB / G 43.2 40.2
OREB / G 14.7 14.0
AST / TO 1.14 0.85
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 47.1% 50.1%
TOV% 17.2% 19.3%
ORB% 36.7% 38.0%
FT Rate 31.5% 25.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.0% 51.7%
Opp TOV% 16.9% 17.2%
DRB% 69.8% 73.0%
Opp FT Rate 20.8% 26.6%

Game Analysis

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