Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | UCF -900 MILW +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCF +8 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | UCF -10.7 (-2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.8 (+3.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -8.3 (-0.3) | 151.5 (+8.5) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -8.6 (-0.6) | 152.6 (+7.4) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -8.0 (+0.0) | 149.7 (+10.3) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -10.0 (-2.0) | 151.2 (+8.8) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | MILW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-17 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 14-6 |
| Home | 13-5 | 13-3 |
| Away | 2-8 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.8 | 76.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.4 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 3.1 (#119) | -1.7 (#197) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.76 (#56) | 0.42 (#152) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.01 (#53) | 0.52 (#152) |
| RPI | 0.643 (#23) | 0.499 (#177) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | MILW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 29.7% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 43.2 | 40.2 |
| OREB / G | 14.7 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 36.7% | 38.0% |
| FT Rate | 31.5% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.