Betting Lines
| Spread | SLU -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Over |
| Money | SLU -550 UML +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SLU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SLU +3 | 183 | Won |
| Massey | SLU -7.9 (-4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.7 (+18.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SLU -5.5 (-2.5) | 157.7 (+25.3) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SLU -5.9 (-2.9) | 153.8 (+29.2) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SLU -5.3 (-2.3) | 156.4 (+26.6) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SLU -4.3 (-1.3) | 159.0 (+24.0) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SLU | UML |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 6-10 |
| Home | 14-3 | 14-4 |
| Away | 4-9 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.6 | 76.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 76.1 |
| Massey | -4.7 (#256) | -6.7 (#293) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.71 (#237) | 0.81 (#116) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.12 (#242) | 1.23 (#113) |
| RPI | 0.468 (#225) | 0.536 (#118) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SLU | UML |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 29.5% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 21.6% |
| ORB% | 21.1% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 36.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 60.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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