We are like Greeks. We are like Romans. / Centaurs and monkeys just cluster 'round us "Nemesis" - Shriekback
Finneran Pavilion · November 28, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread VILL -18.5 Home covered
O/U 137.5 Under
Money VILL -2200 / RID +1000
Model Predictions
Spread Total VILL win
Actual VILL +24 120 Won
Massey VILL -11.2 (+12.8)
Massey Totals 143.5 (-23.5)
Bradley-Terry 19%
Weighted B-T 7%
Baseline Plus ML VILL -9.8 (+14.2) 136.5 (-16.5) 77%
Baseline ML VILL -9.6 (+14.4) 138.2 (-18.2) 77%
Baseline Tuned ML VILL -9.8 (+14.2) 138.2 (-18.2) 75%
Efficiency Plus ML VILL -11.9 (+12.1) 134.7 (-14.7) 82%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings VILL RID
Overall 21-15 14-19
Conference 11-9 9-11
Home 14-3 5-7
Away 3-8 8-11
Neutral 4-4 1-1
Last 5 2-3 4-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 74.0 67.0
Avg Pts Against 68.2 71.8
Massey 3.6 (#112) -1.6 (#190)
Bradley-Terry -0.88 (#250) 1.74 (#57)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.71 (#268) 2.30 (#74)
RPI 0.465 (#232) 0.565 (#81)
Shooting & Four Factors VILL RID
FG% 47.1% 40.2%
3PT% 38.5% 29.1%
REB / G 36.7 38.2
OREB / G 13.0 11.8
AST / TO 1.10 0.84
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 55.5% 45.2%
TOV% 18.2% 21.9%
ORB% 40.6% 34.0%
FT Rate 20.0% 29.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 52.0% 48.3%
Opp TOV% 17.8% 15.3%
DRB% 72.8% 70.2%
Opp FT Rate 23.7% 19.7%

Game Analysis

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