Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -18.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | VILL -2200 RID +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +24 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | VILL -11.2 (+12.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.5 (-23.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 19% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -9.8 (+14.2) | 136.5 (-16.5) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -9.6 (+14.4) | 138.2 (-18.2) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -9.8 (+14.2) | 138.2 (-18.2) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -11.9 (+12.1) | 134.7 (-14.7) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | RID |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-15 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 9-11 |
| Home | 14-3 | 5-7 |
| Away | 3-8 | 8-11 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 67.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 71.8 |
| Massey | 3.6 (#112) | -1.6 (#190) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.88 (#250) | 1.74 (#57) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.71 (#268) | 2.30 (#74) |
| RPI | 0.465 (#232) | 0.565 (#81) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | RID |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 40.2% |
| 3PT% | 38.5% | 29.1% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.5% | 45.2% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 21.9% |
| ORB% | 40.6% | 34.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 29.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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