Betting Lines
| Spread | MONT -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | MONT -110 CSUN -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MONT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MONT +8 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | CSUN -8.2 (+16.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.0 (+2.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSUN -5.3 (+13.3) | 152.2 (+5.8) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CSUN -4.3 (+12.3) | 150.3 (+7.7) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSUN -3.1 (+11.1) | 149.0 (+9.0) | 35% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSUN -6.3 (+14.3) | 149.4 (+8.6) | 36% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MONT | CSUN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 14-6 |
| Home | 15-1 | 10-3 |
| Away | 7-8 | 10-7 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 79.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.0 | 74.3 |
| Massey | -4.0 (#242) | 10.1 (#48) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.48 (#148) | 2.07 (#47) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.58 (#150) | 2.84 (#55) |
| RPI | 0.575 (#67) | 0.525 (#138) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MONT | CSUN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 50.2% |
| 3PT% | 25.9% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 31.4 | 38.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 55.6% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 35.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 77.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.0% | 39.3% |
Game Analysis
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