I don't know why I let that mean woman make me a fool. "Whipping Post" - The Allman Brothers
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Baseline Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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47–20 on winners spread MAE 9.7 67 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Western Carolina @ Florida State +21.8 141.4 90% 57–91 ✓
Lehigh @ Saint Francis +6.0 141.5 69% 78–88 ✓
VMI @ Loyola Maryland +4.7 142.5 69% 67–70 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Fairleigh Dickinson -5.0 140.7 27% 78–76 ✓
Stanford @ Grand Canyon -6.3 144.8 26% 71–78 ✗
Wagner @ Georgetown +10.5 122.2 78% 41–66 ✓
Manhattan @ Virginia +7.6 129.6 78% 65–74 ✓
Coppin State @ Saint Joseph's +19.7 136.5 91% 54–83 ✓
Boise State @ Boston College -5.1 145.0 37% 61–63 ✗
North Dakota State @ Samford +10.2 155.7 82% 98–103 ✓
Alabama @ Houston +3.2 146.5 39% 85–80 ✗
Western Illinois @ South Alabama +13.5 129.7 80% 64–63 ✗
South Carolina Upstate @ Iowa +25.9 158.8 91% 77–110 ✓
Long Beach State @ UTEP +4.5 135.0 65% 44–70 ✓
Iowa State @ Dayton +0.0 144.7 52% 89–84 ✗
Loyola Marymount @ Belmont +6.0 146.4 65% 77–63 ✗
Kansas @ Duke +9.8 144.8 64% 75–72 ✗
Cal State Fullerton @ Pepperdine +7.2 135.0 74% 72–63 ✗
Abilene Christian @ Montana State +6.9 140.7 75% 59–85 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Utah +40.6 140.8 91% 48–94 ✓
California Baptist @ SMU +7.6 153.5 82% 77–79 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Northern Arizona +0.4 133.0 53% 72–68 ✗
Grambling @ Cal Poly +6.5 147.8 76% 79–82 ✓
Eastern Washington @ UC Santa Barbara +9.5 149.0 83% 51–67 ✓
Southern Utah @ UCLA +18.4 138.4 87% 43–88 ✓
Notre Dame @ Rutgers -0.4 150.9 46% 84–85 ✗
UNC Greensboro @ San José State -6.4 131.8 27% 64–69 ✗
Auburn @ North Carolina -2.6 164.8 26% 85–72 ✓
Furman @ Seattle U -3.2 136.3 38% 61–56 ✓
Fresno State @ Washington State +8.8 154.9 78% 73–84 ✓
Louisville @ Indiana -1.1 146.8 41% 89–61 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Louisiana Tech +5.0 144.9 72% 69–78 ✓
Rhode Island @ Detroit Mercy -12.2 146.1 15% 81–75 ✓
Morgan State @ UMBC +6.1 151.8 73% 69–92 ✓
SE Louisiana @ North Dakota -2.0 138.3 41% 76–60 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Charleston +7.2 139.6 71% 64–79 ✓
UTSA @ Merrimack -2.3 130.2 30% 76–74 ✓
New Orleans @ Baylor +28.3 156.2 91% 60–91 ✓
Bryant @ Chattanooga +3.3 152.5 67% 76–84 ✓
Stony Brook @ Brown +14.4 142.4 85% 54–77 ✓
Western Michigan @ Youngstown State +6.7 141.7 60% 73–62 ✗
East Tennessee State @ Charlotte +4.5 144.0 66% 75–55 ✗
Presbyterian @ Tennessee Tech -0.3 139.3 44% 75–90 ✗
Gonzaga @ West Virginia -6.7 146.3 27% 78–86 ✗
Colorado @ Iowa State +3.3 143.1 67% 71–99 ✓
Tulsa @ Georgia State +1.9 149.2 51% 71–74 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Bethune-Cookman -3.9 140.4 39% 79–64 ✓
UT Martin @ Tennessee +29.3 136.6 90% 35–78 ✓
NJIT @ Morehead State +5.9 132.1 64% 78–69 ✗
West Georgia @ North Dakota State +5.3 139.4 68% 61–73 ✓
Sam Houston @ App State -5.7 141.4 37% 63–66 ✗
Northern Illinois @ Valparaiso +9.6 139.0 84% 82–87 ✓
Sacramento State @ Air Force +4.6 125.6 45% 63–61 ✗
San Diego State @ Oregon +4.5 140.0 68% 68–78 ✓
Massachusetts @ Harvard +4.1 149.8 60% 62–54 ✗
Canisius @ Robert Morris +20.6 138.2 90% 64–72 ✓
Bucknell @ Maryland +24.3 147.9 90% 67–91 ✓
Memphis @ Auburn +4.3 152.4 64% 76–90 ✓
UT Arlington @ Austin Peay +7.1 139.4 71% 68–58 ✗
Providence @ Oklahoma +2.4 129.8 66% 77–79 ✓
Ball State @ Richmond +3.1 135.5 62% 60–73 ✓
South Carolina @ Virginia Tech -2.8 138.9 40% 70–60 ✓
Tulane @ Belmont +1.4 150.5 55% 66–89 ✓
Incarnate Word @ Western Illinois -2.3 136.5 39% 86–75 ✓
Creighton @ Texas A&M +6.9 139.3 80% 73–77 ✓
Lindenwood @ Missouri +31.2 151.3 91% 61–81 ✓
South Dakota @ Nebraska +16.7 154.0 87% 79–96 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.