Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | MTST -230 ACU +195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +26 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | MTST -11.7 (+14.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.5 (+1.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -6.9 (+19.1) | 140.7 (+3.3) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -7.3 (+18.7) | 142.7 (+1.3) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -7.5 (+18.5) | 141.7 (+2.3) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -6.1 (+19.9) | 139.9 (+4.1) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTST | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 8-8 |
| Home | 11-3 | 10-5 |
| Away | 3-14 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 71.0 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#141) | -4.1 (#243) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.69 (#300) | -0.23 (#205) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.13 (#283) | -0.41 (#206) |
| RPI | 0.462 (#233) | 0.515 (#153) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTST | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 31.4 | 30.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 25.4% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 40.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 55.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 22.6% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.9% | 48.1% |
Game Analysis
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