Betting Lines
| Spread | STAN -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | GCU +100 STAN -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GCU +7 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | STAN -9.5 (+16.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.9 (-4.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 5% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STAN -6.3 (+13.3) | 144.8 (+4.2) | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | STAN -5.8 (+12.8) | 148.6 (+0.4) | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STAN -5.5 (+12.5) | 146.8 (+2.2) | 28% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STAN -5.4 (+12.4) | 141.4 (+7.6) | 32% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GCU | STAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 13-3 | 11-9 |
| Home | 16-1 | 17-3 |
| Away | 5-4 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.6 | 73.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.0 | 70.7 |
| Massey | -1.0 (#183) | 8.5 (#61) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.09 (#192) | 2.76 (#23) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.06 (#178) | 3.60 (#39) |
| RPI | 0.485 (#202) | 0.634 (#29) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GCU | STAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.63 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 13.5% |
| ORB% | 34.2% | 38.4% |
| FT Rate | 32.0% | 28.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 75.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.1% | 28.9% |
Game Analysis
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