Betting Lines
| Spread | RICH -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | RICH -195 BALL +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RICH +13 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | RICH -1.4 (+11.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.0 (-1.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RICH -3.1 (+9.9) | 135.5 (-2.5) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | RICH -1.6 (+11.4) | 130.4 (+2.6) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RICH -3.0 (+10.0) | 130.8 (+2.2) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RICH -6.4 (+6.6) | 131.1 (+1.9) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RICH | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 7-11 |
| Home | 6-9 | 8-7 |
| Away | 2-11 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L5 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 75.2 |
| Massey | -4.7 (#256) | -6.2 (#277) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.24 (#275) | -2.28 (#327) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.08 (#281) | -4.53 (#348) |
| RPI | 0.455 (#252) | 0.378 (#326) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RICH | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.0% | 38.7% |
| 3PT% | 25.8% | 29.1% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 6.8 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.5% | 45.1% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 19.1% | 20.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 38.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 78.9% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.1% | 31.0% |
Game Analysis
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