Betting Lines
| Spread | CLT -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | CLT -160 ETSU +135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CLT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ETSU +20 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | CLT -6.3 (-26.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.7 (-15.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CLT -4.5 (-24.5) | 144.0 (-14.0) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CLT -6.3 (-26.3) | 144.6 (-14.6) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CLT -5.6 (-25.6) | 143.9 (-13.9) | 69% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CLT -2.9 (-22.9) | 140.2 (-10.2) | 67% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CLT | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-22 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 12-6 |
| Home | 8-8 | 13-3 |
| Away | 1-12 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 71.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.0 | 67.4 |
| Massey | -1.0 (#184) | -1.3 (#187) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.36 (#156) | -1.63 (#298) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.61 (#147) | -2.23 (#288) |
| RPI | 0.538 (#115) | 0.441 (#276) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CLT | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 14.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.64 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 12.8% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 39.9% |
| FT Rate | 39.0% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 54.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 66.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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