Betting Lines
| Spread | AF -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Under |
| Money | AF -300 SAC +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAC +2 | 124 | Lost |
| Massey | AF -1.8 (-3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.7 (-1.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AF -4.6 (-6.6) | 125.6 (-1.6) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AF -3.0 (-5.0) | 131.7 (-7.7) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AF -3.5 (-5.5) | 132.6 (-8.6) | 53% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AF -2.5 (-4.5) | 129.8 (-5.8) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AF | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-28 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 1-19 | 3-15 |
| Home | 3-13 | 5-11 |
| Away | 0-14 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L5 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.9 | 63.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 73.4 |
| Massey | -4.3 (#250) | -0.1 (#161) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.53 (#293) | -1.89 (#307) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.04 (#278) | -2.89 (#307) |
| RPI | 0.441 (#275) | 0.433 (#286) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AF | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 39.5% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 30.2 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 6.8 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.9% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 22.5% |
| ORB% | 23.7% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 18.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 37.2% |
Game Analysis
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