Betting Lines
| Spread | UTC -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Under |
| Money | UTC -260 BRY +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTC +8 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | UTC -1.5 (+6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.0 (+2.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTC -3.3 (+4.7) | 152.5 (+7.5) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTC -3.0 (+5.0) | 151.9 (+8.1) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTC -3.2 (+4.8) | 149.2 (+10.8) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTC -2.1 (+5.9) | 151.9 (+8.1) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTC | BRY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-9 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 14-2 |
| Home | 14-3 | 12-3 |
| Away | 12-5 | 10-7 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.4 | 79.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.1 | 74.9 |
| Massey | -2.8 (#217) | 1.8 (#138) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.03 (#105) | 0.24 (#169) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.63 (#100) | 0.12 (#175) |
| RPI | 0.541 (#110) | 0.520 (#141) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTC | BRY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 25.6% | 40.9% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 41.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 14.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 35.9% |
| FT Rate | 27.6% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 27.9% |
Game Analysis
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