Betting Lines
| Spread | IOWA -28.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 168.5 Over |
| Money | IOWA -100000 UPST +4000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IOWA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IOWA +33 | 187 | Won |
| Massey | IOWA -27.2 (+5.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 168.6 (+18.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IOWA -25.9 (+7.1) | 158.8 (+28.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IOWA -27.3 (+5.7) | 160.2 (+26.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IOWA -22.6 (+10.4) | 165.0 (+22.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IOWA -23.9 (+9.1) | 165.6 (+21.4) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IOWA | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 6-26 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 2-14 |
| Home | 12-6 | 4-10 |
| Away | 2-8 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.5 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.7 | 85.5 |
| Massey | 9.7 (#50) | -11.5 (#340) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.47 (#30) | -3.02 (#349) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.66 (#16) | -4.67 (#352) |
| RPI | 0.625 (#38) | 0.381 (#323) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IOWA | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.66 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.7% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.7% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 57.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.2% | 13.7% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 66.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 11.8% | 31.2% |
Game Analysis
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