Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -38.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +31 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | BAY -30.5 (+0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.3 (-12.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -28.3 (+2.7) | 156.2 (-5.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -28.5 (+2.5) | 157.3 (-6.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -25.2 (+5.8) | 156.1 (-5.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -26.8 (+4.2) | 159.1 (-8.1) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | UNO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-15 | 4-27 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 2-18 |
| Home | 13-3 | 0-11 |
| Away | 3-9 | 3-15 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L13 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 82.5 |
| Massey | 15.7 (#17) | -8.8 (#316) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.67 (#25) | -0.16 (#200) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.02 (#26) | -0.42 (#207) |
| RPI | 0.686 (#15) | 0.482 (#203) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | UNO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 39.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.7 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.47 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 44.6% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 39.1% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.5% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.2% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 63.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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