In North Carolina way back in the hills, there lived my pappy and he had him a still. "White Lightning" - The Big Bopper
SMU Mustangs
79 77
FINAL Neutral Holiday Invitational
California Baptist Lancers
Acrisure Arena (Neutral) · November 27, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread SMU -10.5 Away covered
O/U 153.5 Over
Money SMU -700 / CBU +450
Model Predictions
Spread Total SMU win
Actual SMU +2 156 Won
Massey SMU -12.1 (-10.1)
Massey Totals 159.9 (-3.9)
Bradley-Terry 43%
Weighted B-T 29%
Baseline Plus ML SMU -7.6 (-5.6) 153.5 (+2.5) 82%
Baseline ML SMU -7.1 (-5.1) 154.0 (+2.0) 80%
Baseline Tuned ML SMU -7.6 (-5.6) 154.0 (+2.0) 81%
Efficiency Plus ML SMU -9.1 (-7.1) 152.0 (+4.0) 81%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings SMU CBU
Overall 24-11 17-15
Conference 13-7 9-7
Home 13-6 11-5
Away 7-4 4-8
Neutral 4-1 2-2
Last 5 3-2 3-2
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 79.9 71.2
Avg Pts Against 71.3 70.0
Massey 9.5 (#53) -2.6 (#213)
Bradley-Terry -0.14 (#197) 0.12 (#178)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.03 (#181) 0.88 (#132)
RPI 0.482 (#204) 0.516 (#148)
Shooting & Four Factors SMU CBU
FG% 48.4% 45.4%
3PT% 38.2% 28.9%
REB / G 42.2 34.7
OREB / G 14.2 12.2
AST / TO 1.48 1.35
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 55.3% 50.3%
TOV% 16.5% 12.9%
ORB% 38.5% 33.2%
FT Rate 31.7% 26.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 44.4% 54.5%
Opp TOV% 19.6% 17.5%
DRB% 69.1% 69.2%
Opp FT Rate 29.9% 18.8%

Game Analysis

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