Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | SMU -700 CBU +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +2 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | SMU -12.1 (-10.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.9 (-3.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -7.6 (-5.6) | 153.5 (+2.5) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -7.1 (-5.1) | 154.0 (+2.0) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -7.6 (-5.6) | 154.0 (+2.0) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -9.1 (-7.1) | 152.0 (+4.0) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMU | CBU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 9-7 |
| Home | 13-6 | 11-5 |
| Away | 7-4 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.9 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 70.0 |
| Massey | 9.5 (#53) | -2.6 (#213) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.14 (#197) | 0.12 (#178) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.03 (#181) | 0.88 (#132) |
| RPI | 0.482 (#204) | 0.516 (#148) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMU | CBU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.4% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 28.9% |
| REB / G | 42.2 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 14.2 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.48 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 12.9% |
| ORB% | 38.5% | 33.2% |
| FT Rate | 31.7% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.4% | 54.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.9% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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