Betting Lines
| Spread | UTA -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | APSU +160 UTA -195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTA +10 | 126 | Lost |
| Massey | APSU -5.7 (-15.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.0 (-23.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APSU -7.1 (-17.1) | 139.4 (-13.4) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | APSU -4.7 (-14.7) | 138.0 (-12.0) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APSU -4.6 (-14.6) | 141.1 (-15.1) | 71% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APSU -3.9 (-13.9) | 137.2 (-11.2) | 64% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APSU | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-19 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 6-10 |
| Home | 8-5 | 9-4 |
| Away | 4-13 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 73.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 75.7 |
| Massey | 0.9 (#151) | -4.8 (#258) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.68 (#59) | -1.90 (#309) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.17 (#84) | -2.27 (#292) |
| RPI | 0.633 (#30) | 0.435 (#283) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APSU | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 38.6% |
| REB / G | 30.4 | 31.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 54.6% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 25.7% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 54.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 13.4% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.0% | 38.6% |
Game Analysis
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