Betting Lines
| Spread | CP -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | CP -230 GRAM +185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CP +3 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | CP -9.2 (-6.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.5 (+13.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CP -6.5 (-3.5) | 147.8 (+13.2) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CP -8.3 (-5.3) | 144.2 (+16.8) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CP -6.7 (-3.7) | 144.3 (+16.7) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CP -6.0 (-3.0) | 145.9 (+15.1) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CP | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-19 | 12-22 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 7-11 |
| Home | 9-5 | 6-7 |
| Away | 5-13 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.6 | 64.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 83.4 | 69.3 |
| Massey | 3.4 (#117) | 0.2 (#158) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.17 (#95) | -0.89 (#254) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.55 (#62) | -0.85 (#224) |
| RPI | 0.569 (#78) | 0.544 (#105) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CP | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 32.0 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 23.0% | 25.3% |
| ORB% | 25.1% | 21.3% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 64.4% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 31.4% |
Game Analysis
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