Betting Lines
| Spread | MD -25.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | MD -20000 BUCK +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MD +24 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | MD -23.8 (+0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.8 (+12.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MD -24.3 (-0.3) | 147.9 (+10.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MD -22.1 (+1.9) | 146.7 (+11.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MD -20.7 (+3.3) | 146.3 (+11.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MD -23.2 (+0.8) | 148.6 (+9.4) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 13-5 |
| Home | 17-2 | 12-4 |
| Away | 5-5 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.1 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 73.2 |
| Massey | 15.6 (#18) | -2.2 (#202) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.44 (#77) | 0.39 (#152) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.31 (#73) | 0.63 (#146) |
| RPI | 0.561 (#88) | 0.504 (#170) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | BUCK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.7% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 40.8 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.5% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 13.5% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 36.3% | 25.3% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 26.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.3% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.9% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 76.3% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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