Betting Lines
| Spread | FSU -20.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | FSU -5000 WCU +1500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FSU +34 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | FSU -20.3 (+13.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.2 (+5.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FSU -21.8 (+12.2) | 141.4 (+6.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FSU -23.1 (+10.9) | 140.2 (+7.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FSU -18.4 (+15.6) | 140.7 (+7.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FSU -14.9 (+19.1) | 144.9 (+3.1) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FSU | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 8-22 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 4-14 |
| Home | 11-5 | 7-7 |
| Away | 2-9 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 67.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 80.6 |
| Massey | 6.9 (#73) | -7.4 (#300) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.91 (#50) | -1.72 (#301) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.70 (#56) | -3.20 (#317) |
| RPI | 0.588 (#65) | 0.360 (#341) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FSU | WCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 36.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 26.4% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 42.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 0.57 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 42.3% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 24.9% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 29.9% | 15.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 44.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.6% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.6% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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