Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | SAM -700 NDSU +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +5 | 201 | Won |
| Massey | SAM -13.8 (-8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.2 (+34.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -10.2 (-5.2) | 155.7 (+45.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -11.3 (-6.3) | 156.0 (+45.0) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -10.4 (-5.4) | 154.5 (+46.5) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -13.9 (-8.9) | 152.7 (+48.3) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAM | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 10-6 |
| Home | 13-3 | 11-4 |
| Away | 9-7 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.5 | 80.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.8 | 76.0 |
| Massey | 3.9 (#112) | -3.9 (#236) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.67 (#129) | -1.36 (#283) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.29 (#165) | -1.56 (#260) |
| RPI | 0.505 (#167) | 0.375 (#329) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAM | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.7% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.2% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 23.5% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 18.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 54.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 9.4% |
| DRB% | 62.5% | 73.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.5% | 17.3% |
Game Analysis
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