Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | USA -750 WIU +475 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIU +1 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | USA -19.9 (-20.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.3 (+1.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -13.5 (-14.5) | 129.7 (-2.7) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USA -13.9 (-14.9) | 131.2 (-4.2) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -13.9 (-14.9) | 131.9 (-4.9) | 85% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -12.0 (-13.0) | 131.4 (-4.4) | 76% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USA | WIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 6-14 |
| Home | 13-4 | 8-7 |
| Away | 8-6 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 66.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.5 | 73.3 |
| Massey | 3.3 (#118) | -10.6 (#337) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.10 (#193) | -1.21 (#272) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.34 (#199) | -2.06 (#280) |
| RPI | 0.492 (#186) | 0.359 (#343) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USA | WIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 24.8% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 15.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 55.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 76.2% | 76.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.6% | 25.7% |
Game Analysis
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