Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | PROV -225 DAV +190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAV +11 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | PROV -4.5 (-15.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.9 (-18.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -3.4 (-14.4) | 140.0 (-13.0) | 65% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -4.8 (-15.8) | 141.5 (-14.5) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -3.8 (-14.8) | 139.7 (-12.7) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -3.3 (-14.3) | 141.4 (-14.4) | 68% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 2, 2020 | PROV 63 – 62 DAV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | DAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 6-12 |
| Home | 10-6 | 11-6 |
| Away | 2-9 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.3 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 71.5 |
| Massey | 4.9 (#96) | 0.3 (#158) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.01 (#101) | -0.07 (#188) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.67 (#94) | -0.13 (#185) |
| RPI | 0.535 (#118) | 0.512 (#155) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | DAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 43.0 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 54.5% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 39.1% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 26.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.6% | 56.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 79.4% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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