Betting Lines
| Spread | PENN -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | PENN -180 NAVY +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PENN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAVY +8 | 164 | Lost |
| Massey | PENN -5.1 (-13.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.7 (+9.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PENN -3.6 (-11.6) | 148.7 (+15.3) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PENN -4.6 (-12.6) | 149.0 (+15.0) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PENN -4.2 (-12.2) | 147.7 (+16.3) | 64% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PENN -4.7 (-12.7) | 146.4 (+17.6) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PENN | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-19 | 15-19 |
| Conference | 4-10 | 10-8 |
| Home | 5-8 | 9-5 |
| Away | 3-10 | 6-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.4 | 71.2 |
| Massey | -14.7 (#354) | -14.0 (#350) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.39 (#286) | -2.68 (#338) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.22 (#321) | -3.58 (#332) |
| RPI | 0.358 (#344) | 0.310 (#359) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PENN | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.9% | 39.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 28.4% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.0% | 45.2% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 33.2% |
| FT Rate | 29.0% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 55.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 60.1% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 36.3% |
Game Analysis
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