Betting Lines
| Spread | BEL -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | BEL -340 GWEB +270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BEL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BEL +9 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | BEL -2.0 (+7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.0 (-1.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BEL -3.9 (+5.1) | 149.0 (+8.0) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BEL -3.7 (+5.3) | 150.9 (+6.1) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BEL -4.1 (+4.9) | 149.0 (+8.0) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BEL -3.4 (+5.6) | 148.3 (+8.7) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BEL | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 5-11 |
| Home | 11-5 | 5-6 |
| Away | 9-4 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.9 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.8 | 78.1 |
| Massey | 2.0 (#133) | 5.8 (#85) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.37 (#147) | 1.15 (#93) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.14 (#186) | 0.83 (#132) |
| RPI | 0.502 (#170) | 0.587 (#60) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BEL | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 37.8% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.49 | 0.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.4% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 23.6% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 16.9% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.1% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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