Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | PUR -155 MISS +135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +2 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -2.5 (-0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.6 (+15.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -1.2 (+0.8) | 141.8 (+16.2) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -2.6 (-0.6) | 143.8 (+14.2) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -3.1 (-1.1) | 142.3 (+15.7) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -2.8 (-0.8) | 141.9 (+16.1) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 10-8 |
| Home | 14-2 | 13-3 |
| Away | 5-6 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.2 | 77.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.4 | 71.7 |
| Massey | 13.0 (#31) | 10.5 (#46) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.18 (#16) | 2.68 (#27) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.13 (#13) | 3.71 (#35) |
| RPI | 0.699 (#11) | 0.609 (#42) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | MISS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.3% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 41.6% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.63 | 1.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.0% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 11.8% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 33.5% | 29.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 24.4% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 75.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.9% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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