Betting Lines
| Spread | VAN -23.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | VAN -20000 TNTC +3000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAN +31 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | VAN -14.6 (+16.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.6 (-18.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAN -14.2 (+16.8) | 153.9 (-10.9) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VAN -13.2 (+17.8) | 151.5 (-8.5) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAN -12.6 (+18.4) | 152.2 (-9.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAN -14.4 (+16.6) | 153.0 (-10.0) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAN | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 10-10 |
| Home | 14-3 | 9-5 |
| Away | 3-7 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.9 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 74.1 |
| Massey | 5.9 (#82) | -2.9 (#221) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.04 (#18) | 0.02 (#177) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.00 (#16) | -0.75 (#219) |
| RPI | 0.626 (#32) | 0.495 (#180) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAN | TNTC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 29.2% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 30.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.62 | 1.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 13.2% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 22.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 15.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 57.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 16.3% |
Game Analysis
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