Betting Lines
| Spread | ELON -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | ELON -195 ME +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ELON win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ME +13 | 125 | Lost |
| Massey | ELON -9.8 (-22.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.7 (-15.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ELON -7.0 (-20.0) | 138.9 (-13.9) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ELON -7.5 (-20.5) | 140.7 (-15.7) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ELON -7.1 (-20.1) | 138.8 (-13.8) | 82% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ELON -5.8 (-18.8) | 139.4 (-14.4) | 70% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ELON | ME |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 10-6 |
| Home | 10-4 | 10-3 |
| Away | 6-9 | 8-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 12.0 (#38) | 2.2 (#131) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.52 (#71) | -0.02 (#185) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.07 (#49) | -0.46 (#206) |
| RPI | 0.563 (#80) | 0.477 (#212) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ELON | ME |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.4% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 39.8% | 26.6% |
| REB / G | 40.2 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.3% | 46.5% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 36.0% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 29.4% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.4% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.8% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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