I don't know why I let that mean woman make me a fool. "Whipping Post" - The Allman Brothers
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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33–11 on winners spread MAE 9.7 44 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Duke @ Miami -4.9 152.8 33% 84–55 ✓
Florida @ Alabama +12.8 182.1 88% 93–98 ✓
Dayton @ George Mason -3.3 132.7 38% 67–71 ✗
Notre Dame @ Louisville +1.2 135.5 54% 72–50 ✗
Clemson @ Georgia Tech -7.5 148.9 25% 81–57 ✓
Oklahoma State @ Cincinnati +11.9 140.9 86% 80–76 ✗
UNC Asheville @ Longwood +2.1 146.1 57% 75–80 ✓
Charleston Southern @ South Carolina Upstate +7.3 139.5 75% 63–60 ✗
St. John's @ Georgetown -10.1 151.8 18% 90–85 ✓
Boston University @ American University +5.0 129.9 67% 67–52 ✗
Richmond @ Rhode Island -5.5 143.5 31% 85–77 ✓
George Washington @ Saint Joseph's +12.4 162.2 87% 75–79 ✓
Navy @ Loyola Maryland +1.2 131.6 54% 69–62 ✗
Bucknell @ Holy Cross -4.6 138.2 34% 59–73 ✗
The Citadel @ Mercer +3.0 130.8 61% 78–87 ✓
VMI @ East Tennessee State +16.9 145.3 94% 69–82 ✓
Wofford @ Chattanooga +7.3 152.6 75% 65–81 ✓
James Madison @ Marshall -9.6 154.7 19% 84–58 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Georgia State +11.5 154.2 85% 71–72 ✓
Middle Tennessee @ Jacksonville State +9.6 122.8 81% 68–76 ✓
Furman @ Samford +10.4 169.0 83% 72–74 ✓
South Florida @ UTSA -9.1 160.8 21% 66–61 ✓
Rice @ UAB +10.7 151.4 83% 94–71 ✗
Charlotte @ Memphis +4.0 145.7 64% 52–76 ✓
Indiana State @ Valparaiso -15.7 153.7 8% 83–64 ✓
Evansville @ UIC +3.9 140.5 64% 79–88 ✓
Murray State @ Southern Illinois +5.4 135.4 69% 68–72 ✓
Bradley @ Missouri State -3.8 144.9 37% 86–62 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Illinois State -1.4 130.9 45% 73–81 ✗
Belmont @ Drake +13.0 158.4 88% 69–84 ✓
Providence @ Xavier +4.4 144.4 66% 79–75 ✗
Nebraska @ Indiana -2.5 148.4 41% 85–70 ✓
Georgia @ Vanderbilt -5.7 141.9 30% 76–64 ✓
DePaul @ Marquette +27.8 146.6 99% 71–105 ✓
Kentucky @ LSU -3.6 169.3 37% 74–75 ✗
Tulsa @ Wichita State +5.3 146.7 69% 63–79 ✓
Ole Miss @ Mississippi State +6.9 140.2 74% 71–83 ✓
Colorado State @ New Mexico +4.6 154.2 66% 66–68 ✓
Pepperdine @ Pacific -8.3 147.8 23% 89–70 ✓
UNLV @ Air Force -6.4 137.0 28% 72–43 ✓
UMBC @ Maine +7.9 151.6 76% 56–62 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Stony Brook +13.1 146.8 88% 64–80 ✓
Binghamton @ UMass Lowell +11.9 145.4 86% 80–87 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Bellarmine +6.6 141.9 73% 65–68 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.